The 3.5% rise in April outpaced most economists’ forecasts and marks the highest inflation level since February 2024.
The UK’s inflation rate unexpectedly climbed to 3.5% in April, driven largely by sharp increases in household bills, energy costs, and airfares, according to new figures released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This rise outpaced most economists’ forecasts and marks the highest inflation level since February 2024.
Economists had predicted inflation would hover around 3.3%, while the Bank of England expected 3.4%. The surprise increase adds pressure on policymakers who are tasked with maintaining inflation near the 2% target, primarily by adjusting interest rates.
Grant Fitzner, acting director general of the ONS, highlighted the main drivers of the jump. “Significant increases in household bills caused inflation to climb steeply,” he said, pointing out that gas and electricity prices rose sharply after falling in the same period last year due to changes in the Ofgem energy price cap.
In addition to utility bills, airfares and water charges contributed to the increase. Water bills surged by 26.1%, marking the steepest rise since at least 1988, before the water industry was privatised under Margaret Thatcher’s government. Airfares jumped 27.5%, mainly due to the timing of Easter holidays shifting later in April this year, causing a seasonal spike in travel costs.
Despite these rises, some relief came in the form of falling fuel prices. The average price of petrol dropped by 3p per litre to 134.5p, while diesel prices fell by 3.1p to 141.7p, although costs remain substantially higher than a year ago.
“We are a long way from the double-digit inflation of the previous administration, but I am determined that we go further and faster to put more money in people’s pockets.”
Rachel Reeves, Chancellor
Fitzner noted that while inflation was pushed up by temporary factors such as seasonal airfares and energy bills, there are underlying pressures in the economy. Pay growth remains significantly above the inflation rate, which could keep inflation elevated. He also mentioned positive global trends, such as falling wholesale energy and commodity prices and a stronger pound, which could help ease inflation going into 2026.
Political responses were swift and sharply divided. Shadow Chancellor Mel Stride from the Conservative Party blamed the rise on Labour’s economic policies, saying, “Families are paying the price for the Labour chancellor’s choices.” He warned that higher inflation could keep interest rates elevated for longer, putting further strain on household finances.
Labour Chancellor Rachel Reeves expressed disappointment with the figures but emphasised ongoing efforts to support working people. Speaking from a London warehouse, she stated, “We are a long way from the double-digit inflation of the previous administration, but I am determined that we go further and faster to put more money in people’s pockets.” Reeves highlighted recent measures such as raising the minimum wage, freezing fuel duty, and securing new trade deals aimed at reducing costs.
The Liberal Democrats called for bold government action to ease pressure on households. Deputy leader Daisy Cooper criticised the ongoing National Insurance hike and urged policies to boost the economy, including scrapping the jobs tax, resolving trade conflicts, and negotiating a new customs union with the EU.
While inflation is expected to remain above 3% for several months, many economists believe the current spike is temporary. Factors such as falling global energy prices and seasonal anomalies are likely to ease inflationary pressures as the year progresses. However, uncertainty remains over whether businesses will pass on increased costs from taxes and wages to consumers.
The ONS’s detailed inflation basket showed mixed trends: food prices rose 3.4% year-on-year, with meat, bread, cereals, and mineral water becoming more expensive. Conversely, prices for vegetables, milk, cheese, and eggs grew more slowly, offering some relief to shoppers.
In summary, April’s inflation data reveal a complex picture: soaring household bills are pushing prices up, yet some costs, including fuel and certain food items, have eased. Policymakers face the challenge of balancing inflation control with supporting economic growth and household incomes.
