This trend is compounded by a growing mental health crisis. In 2030, it is estimated that over 42 million years of healthy life will be lost to mental disorders and suicide
The health of the world’s adolescents is at a tipping point, with alarming projections revealing that more than 464 million adolescents globally will be overweight or obese by 2030, as per a new analysis by The Lancet Commission.
The report, released on Wednesday, draws from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease Study and marks the Commission’s second detailed analysis of adolescent health and well-being since 2016. The data highlights a deeply concerning rise in adolescent obesity and associated health disorders, with 143 million more adolescents projected to be overweight or obese in 2030 compared to 2015. The burden is particularly stark in high-income countries across Latin America and the Middle East, where nearly one-third of adolescents are expected to be overweight within the next five years.
Professor Sarah Baird, Commission co-chair and a public health expert from George Washington University, described the situation as a global health crisis. “The health and well-being of adolescents worldwide is at a tipping point, with mixed progress observed over the past three decades,” she said. “While tobacco and alcohol use has declined and participation in secondary and tertiary education has increased, overweight and obesity have risen up to eight-fold in parts of Africa and Asia.”
This trend is compounded by a growing mental health crisis. In 2030, it is estimated that over 42 million years of healthy life will be lost to mental disorders and suicide — a two million year increase from 2015. Mental health conditions, already on the rise, are now being exacerbated by new and emerging global challenges.
Among the most significant of these are climate change and the rapid shift to a digitally dominated world, which the Commission identifies as new-age threats to adolescent health. Today’s youth are the first generation to live their entire lives under consistently elevated global temperatures, averaging 0.5°C above pre-industrial levels. This warming trend is expected to intensify further, reaching 2.8°C by 2100, subjecting future generations to extreme weather, food and water insecurity, and climate-related trauma.
The digital world, while bringing education and communication benefits, has also introduced new risks including cyberbullying, addiction, and excessive screen time, all linked to deteriorating mental health outcomes among adolescents.
Additionally, more than 1 billion adolescents in 2030 will continue to live in multi-burden countries, where preventable issues such as HIV/AIDS, early pregnancy, unsafe sex, depression, malnutrition, and injuries persist without adequate healthcare and support systems.
Professor Baird called for urgent political will, stronger policy frameworks, and robust financial investments to reverse these worrying trends. “Investing in the health and well-being of young people is not just a moral imperative,” she said, “but a strategic necessity to secure the world’s collective future.”
The Commission’s report is a stark reminder that progress in some areas does not offset the growing challenges in others. As the world edges closer to 2030, decisive and coordinated action is essential to protect the next generation from a lifetime of preventable health struggles.
