Tech billionaire Elon Musk, a vocal critic of declining birthrates, has long argued that a population collapse is a greater threat to civilization than climate change
With birthrates plummeting across developed nations, concern is growing in the UK over what some experts are calling a “demographic time bomb.” The number of babies born in England and Wales fell to its lowest level in decades last year, with women averaging just 1.44 children — well below the 2.1 generally considered necessary to maintain a stable population.
Now, a leading study warns that the actual threshold to avoid population collapse may be even higher — at 2.7 children per woman. According to researcher Diane Cuaresma, who led the Japan-based study, the long-held 2.1 figure fails to account for early mortality and women who never have children. “Almost all family lineages are destined to go extinct” if these low fertility rates persist, she warned.
The UK’s challenges reflect a broader global trend. The worldwide average fertility rate has dropped to an estimated 2.3, with many developed countries, including Japan, South Korea, and Germany, facing even steeper declines.
Tech billionaire Elon Musk, a vocal critic of declining birthrates, has long argued that a population collapse is a greater threat to civilization than climate change. Musk, who has fathered 14 children, has called on governments and individuals alike to prioritize family growth over short-term economic solutions like immigration.
In the UK, the conversation is heating up politically. Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch recently said the country can no longer rely on immigration to solve the challenges posed by an ageing population. “We have to look at the demographics of our country,” she said in a BBC interview. “We cannot solve it with immigration.”
Badenoch acknowledged that having children is a personal choice but insisted that the state must grapple with falling fertility rates. Her remarks hint at a potential policy shift toward encouraging family growth, although her track record on the issue is mixed.
She previously suggested maternity pay had “gone too far,” only to walk back the comment following criticism. Some of her fellow Conservatives share her concern. Robert Jenrick, shadow justice secretary and a former leadership rival, has pointed to housing costs and lack of affordable childcare as key barriers to young people starting families. “With an ageing society, a higher birthrate is critically important,” he said.
Still, not everyone in the party agrees. Former education secretary Justine Greening pushed back, saying the focus should be on better outcomes for existing children. “We’ve got enough children,” she said. “Let’s develop the ones we’ve got.” Meanwhile, other nations are experimenting with aggressive pronatalist policies. Hungary has exempted mothers from income tax, and South Korea now offers monthly stipends to new parents. Whether the UK will follow suit remains unclear, but the numbers speak for themselves: only 591,072 babies were born in 2023, fewer than in any year since 1977.
As policymakers debate how best to respond, one thing is clear — the birthrate crisis has moved from a quiet demographic concern to the centre of political discourse.
