A new political landscape is emerging in Britain. It’s now a five-horse race to No. 10: Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrats, Greens—and Reform. Reform’s victory in the Runcorn & Helsby by-election will force both Labour and the Conservatives to reassess their policies and strategies …. writes Anasudhin Azeez
British politics has turned the clock back to 2014, delivering a shocking victory for the ruling party and endorsing a right-wing, anti-immigrant party as a lightning rod to attract the protest vote. In the 2014 European Parliament election, the UK Independence Party (UKIP), the predecessor of Nigel Farage’s new Reform, won 24 seats, ahead of Labour’s 20 and the Conservatives’ 19. Then-prime minister David Cameron tried to stem the tide by calling a referendum to decide the UK’s future in the EU—and the rest is history.
The by-election, mayoral, and council elections have served as a mini-referendum on Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s 10-month-old Labour government. Starmer and Chancellor Rachel Reeves are trying to reboot the economy and the social care system by taking tough decisions—and they have paid the price. Farage’s new party, Reform UK, has reasserted his place in the pantheon of right-wing, anti-immigrant European parties, which are threatening established parties like Labour and the Conservatives.
Pollster Sir John Curtice says Reform is now “in business.” He also predicts that Reform’s victory has sparked the biggest political shake-up in 100 years.
“UKIP never managed to win a parliamentary by-election afresh in the way that Reform has done in Runcorn,” he told the BBC. “Reform is in business. They are a major challenge,” he added.
“Victory in Runcorn & Helsby proves we are now the opposition party to this Labour government,” Farage tweeted after the win. “With this and other results tonight, it’s clear that if you vote Conservative, you get Labour. But if you vote Reform, you get Reform.”
The by-election was called after former Labour MP Mike Amesbury resigned following his conviction for assaulting a constituent. The newly elected MP, Sarah Pochin, has switched political allegiances more than once – having been expelled from the Conservative and Independent groups during her time as a councillor before joining Reform UK last year. She was a borough councillor on Cheshire East Council between 2015 and 2023. In 2020, she was expelled from the Conservative Party group over a spat concerning the selection of the area’s ceremonial mayor.
Labour is accusing the Tories of giving Reform a free ride in the seat, and the shrinking vote percentage underscores this. Ellie Reeves, chair of the Labour Party, said Conservative voters deserted the party in droves to back Reform.
In an interview, she said: “The Tories aren’t doing anything. [Tory MP] Esther McVey basically said the Tories should sit it out and let Reform win, and we’re seeing that on the ground. They’re not doing any work at all—it looks like they’re just gifting it to Reform.”
Another Reform star, Andrea Jenkyns, secured a victory in the newly created mayoral post in Greater Lincolnshire, managing an annual budget of £24 million. She comfortably beat the Conservatives’ Rob Waltham by nearly 40,000 votes, with Labour’s Jason Stockwood in third place. Jenkyns – who was made a Dame in Boris Johnson’s resignation honours – lost her seat at the general election when she stood as a Conservative. She had previously defeated Ed Balls at the 2015 general election and has often made headlines for her controversies as a Tory MP.
These included giving the middle finger to protesters outside 10 Downing Street in 2022 when then-Prime Minister Boris Johnson resigned. She also once slammed universities for offering “Harry Potter studies,” despite the fact that no such course exists.
A new political landscape is emerging in Britain. It’s now a five-horse race to No. 10: Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrats, Greens—and Reform. Reform’s victory in the Runcorn & Helsby by-election will force both Labour and the Conservatives to reassess their policies and strategies. The Conservatives remain in disarray after the tumultuous tenures of Liz Truss, Rishi Sunak, and now Kemi Badenoch. The exodus of Tory voters to Reform in Runcorn highlights the party’s precarious state. Traditional Conservatives have installed Kemi as leader to steady the sinking ship, but the party may not recover from the damage wrought by Truss’s economic blunders, Rishi’s broken pledges, and Kemi’s risky experiments.
Meanwhile, Labour, as the ruling party, is under pressure to review its agenda. The winter fuel tax clearly dented its image among voters, and the right-wing media amplified the backlash, despite Labour’s claims that it would put more money in pensioners’ pockets. It was a misstep—people are still suffering under the weight of the cost-of-living crisis, triggered by the Covid pandemic and 14 years of Tory rule.
