The former top aide to Boris Johnson claims Tory party may be “dead” and says Reform UK could ride anti-establishment wave to power
Dominic Cummings, the former chief adviser to Boris Johnson, has claimed that Kemi Badenoch’s leadership of the Conservative Party is already under threat — and that she is unlikely to survive the year. In a candid interview with Sky News, Cummings also suggested the party may have passed the point of no return and that Nigel Farage, under the right strategy, could “definitely” become prime minister.
“Kemi is going to go, probably this year,” said Cummings, referring to the Conservative leader who succeeded Rishi Sunak in November 2024 after the party’s historic electoral collapse. “There are already people organising to get rid of her, and I think that that will work. If it doesn’t happen this year, it will definitely happen after next May. She’s a goner.”
Cummings, who was a central figure in the 2016 Brexit campaign and served as Downing Street’s most influential aide until his dramatic departure in 2020, also delivered a stark assessment of the party he once helped guide to power.
“It’s quite possible the Tories have crossed the event horizon and aren’t salvageable,” he said. “Everyone assumes there’s always one last chance for them to turn things around, but that chance might be in the past. It might be dead.”
The comments come as Badenoch struggles to assert her authority over a fractured party still reeling from its general election rout and facing continued pressure from the insurgent Reform UK party, now led by Farage.
Cummings revealed that he has been advising Farage on how to reshape Reform UK into a viable party of government. He said the former UKIP leader could ride widespread disillusionment with the political establishment all the way to Downing Street — if he professionalises his operation.
“He could definitely become prime minister now,” said Cummings. “The old system is so completely broken. If he does what I’m suggesting — build structure, recruit talent, develop policy, and show how Reform would actually govern — there’ll be a huge surge of interest.” He described Farage’s political movement so far as “Nigel and an iPhone,” a reference to the populist leader’s social media-heavy campaigning. While Cummings admitted that this approach had helped Reform cut through, he insisted it wasn’t enough to win power.
“They can win 50, 100, even 150 seats with just that,” he said. “But you can’t run a government with one man and an iPhone. You need a serious team to govern, to take over Whitehall.” Still, Cummings was scathing about Farage’s personal appeal, suggesting his popularity is less about charisma and more about what he represents. “Reform is a vehicle for people to say: ‘We despise you, Westminster. We hate the old parties, the civil service, the media — the whole f***ing lot of you.’ Farage rising in the polls is the expression of that.” Cummings, who left No 10 after clashing with Johnson’s inner circle, remains a divisive figure in British politics. His credibility took a hit during the COVID-19 pandemic when he drove to Barnard Castle during lockdown, claiming he needed to test his eyesight.
Even so, his political instincts continue to attract attention — particularly when they point towards a Tory implosion and a possible Farage-led populist surge.
