UK pushes 2035 target as Starmer seeks room to manoeuvre; Spain holds out despite alliance-wide deal
The UK and its NATO allies have agreed to a significant increase in military-related spending, pledging to raise national defence and associated budgets to 5% of GDP by 2035 — more than doubling the alliance’s current target.
The landmark move, approved by ambassadors from all 32 member states, is expected to be formally endorsed by world leaders — including US President Donald Trump — during a high-level summit in The Hague this week, Sky News reported.
The revised spending framework breaks down into 3.5% of GDP allocated to direct defence expenditure and an additional 1.5% to be invested in related sectors such as infrastructure, cyber security, and supply chain resilience, it was reported.
Diplomatic sources described the agreement as a political signal designed as much to reassure the United States of NATO’s resolve as to counter growing threats from Russia and China. The US president has repeatedly expressed frustration with what he considers free-riding by European allies, warning he would not defend nations that failed to “pay their fair share”.
However, alliance unity has been dented by dissent from Spain. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has made it clear that Madrid will not sign up to the 5% target. In a televised interview on Sunday, he said Spain would only meet NATO’s core military requirements, which he said require spending around 2.1% of GDP — far less than the new ambition.
“We fully respect the legitimate desire of other countries to increase their defence investment, but we are not going to do so,” Sánchez said. Spain currently spends just 1.24% of its GDP on defence — among the lowest in NATO — and has consistently resisted pressure to raise its allocation.
The impasse has led to a softening in the language of the agreement. According to Reuters, negotiators adjusted the wording from “we commit” to “allies commit”, effectively allowing Spain to opt out while preserving the appearance of consensus.
Still, the overall shift marks NATO’s most dramatic proposed increase in military expenditure since the Cold War, when similar levels of GDP were routinely directed to defence. The current threshold, set at 2% of GDP, was established in 2014 following Russia’s annexation of Crimea.
The push for a 5% goal has been led by outgoing NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, who has worked behind the scenes to win over hesitant capitals. The UK, while supportive, had itself been slow to fully endorse the move. With a new Labour government in power, officials in the Ministry of Defence were reportedly uncertain about Sir Keir Starmer’s long-term defence strategy.
Although Starmer has said he wants to see UK defence spending rise from 2.3% to 3% of GDP by 2034, there has been no firm commitment to reach the new 5% benchmark. However, the 2035 timeline — which pushes the burden into the next parliament — was largely a British suggestion aimed at buying more time to scale up budgets without clashing with immediate fiscal plans.
Despite this ambiguity, the UK has framed itself as a cornerstone of NATO’s defence posture. A senior MoD official told reporters that the government supports “the direction of travel” and wants to remain a “credible force within the alliance.”
The defence debate comes amid rising global tensions, with the war in Ukraine dragging into its third year, increased Russian sabre-rattling near NATO’s eastern flank, and the West grappling with the strategic assertiveness of China.
In the backdrop, President Trump’s presence at the summit underscores NATO’s desire to secure US commitment amid fears of a shifting American stance, particularly if Trump secures re-election later this year.
For now, the 5% spending pledge sends a strong political message, though questions remain over whether all member states — especially those already struggling to meet the existing 2% goal — will follow through.
