Ex-trade chief warns UK’s fast-track deal with Trump may collapse as transatlantic tensions mount and European travellers turn away from America.
Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s ambitious plan to wrap up a UK-US trade agreement in a fortnight is running into strong headwinds, with former top negotiator Crawford Falconer warning that only “extraordinary generosity” from President Donald Trump could make such a timeline feasible.
In an interview with Bloomberg, Falconer, who led British trade talks until late 2023, cast serious doubt on Starmer’s assertion that final details of the so-called Economic Prosperity Deal could be finalised in two weeks. “My assumption is that they’re expecting the US to be extraordinarily generous and understanding toward them,” he said. “Because otherwise I think it would take longer than two weeks.”
That sobering assessment comes as Trump’s tariff threats continue to batter Britain’s steel industry. The White House has given the UK until July 9 to resolve key sticking points — or face a doubling of steel and aluminium tariffs to 50 per cent, a move that could prove fatal to several already struggling British manufacturers.
Some firms say US orders have already dried up due to the uncertainty. Starmer, however, remained publicly optimistic, telling Parliament last week that a resolution was still expected “within a couple of weeks”.
Deal Stalled on Ownership, Origin Rules
At the core of the unresolved issues are Trump’s demands over the ownership and origin of British steel. The US has signalled discomfort with the fact that British Steel remains legally owned by China’s Jingye Group, despite being under temporary UK government control. Trump’s team has insisted that preferential tariff terms cannot be extended to companies with ties to strategic rivals like China.
Falconer noted that this condition creates a complex barrier. “It’s difficult for me to believe that the US will give the green light to Jingye if it is uncertain about the actual commercial arrangements for British Steel going forward,” he said.
Also complicating matters is Tata Steel UK, which closed its last blast furnace in 2024 and now imports steel substrate due to delays in commissioning a new electric arc furnace. CEO Rajesh Nair has confirmed that UK-melted steel won’t be viable until at least late 2027. He warned that requiring “melted and poured in the UK” conditions would “exclude us from market access.”
Europe Turning Its Back on America
While London scrambles to save its steel access to America, a broader crisis is unfolding: Europe is souring on the US.
From travel and tourism to trade and tech, European public sentiment is shifting, with growing numbers of consumers and travellers boycotting American brands and destinations.
According to Oxford Economics, inbound travel to the US is expected to fall 8.7 per cent in 2025, with the sharpest drops from Canada and Western Europe. Travel from Germany, Spain, and Ireland has already plunged over 20 per cent. In March alone, visits from Western Europe fell by 17.2 per cent, US government data shows.
Online travel platform Omio reported a 16 per cent rise in cancelled US trips in Q1, with cancellation rates from the UK, Germany, and France nearing 40 per cent.
The downturn stems from Trump’s trade tactics, strict border policies, and a general sense of American instability. “The US just doesn’t feel like a positive place anymore,” said a British sports professional. “Most Brits I know are turned off by Trump’s policies.”
Economic Repercussions Mounting
Beyond tourism, the anti-American backlash has evolved into consumer activism. A Danish Facebook group urging a boycott of US goods has grown to over 95,000 members, and similar movements have taken hold in Germany, Sweden, Norway, and France.
On Reddit, a 200,000-strong “BuyFromEU” community exchanges alternatives to US products, and barcode apps now help shoppers avoid American imports. European supermarkets have started labelling and promoting EU-made goods in prominent displays.
Goldman Sachs analysts estimate that declining tourism and boycotts could cost the US up to $90 billion in 2025, shaving a modest amount off the country’s GDP.
Paul English, co-founder of travel website Kayak, said Trump has “destroyed the reputation of the US,” and warned that the damage could take “generations to repair”.
No Easy Wins for Starmer
Back in Westminster, the mounting complications suggest that Starmer’s post-Brexit promise of a quick, bespoke trade deal with the US may prove elusive. Even with political will on both sides, the structural obstacles — tariffs, steel origin rules, and Chinese ownership — are unlikely to be resolved in a fortnight.
If the deadline passes without a deal, British steel could face a 50 per cent tariff wall — and Starmer could face early embarrassment on the world stage.
