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May 14, 2025
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Shifting Centres: How the UK and France are filling the US void

This moment may well be a test case for the U.K.’s renewed diplomatic identity — a chance to shape its post-Brexit role as an agile, engaged force in global affairs, writes Arnav Raje

Since Donald Trump’s return to the U.S. Presidency in 2024, the geopolitical dynamics surrounding the Russia-Ukraine war have shifted dramatically. Amidst a wave of pulling out from international organisations, suspending foreign aid schemes, and launching retaliatory tariffs that risk a trade war-like scenario — the Trump administration has maintained a dubious stand that leans towards Russia. This was made strikingly clear during a heated exchange in Washington, where Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was ganged up upon by the U.S. duo of President Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance. The confrontation included accusations of Ukraine being “thankless,” with even more serious charges of “gambling with World War 3.” Zelenskyy was reportedly asked to leave the White House shortly after.

The publicly televised event sparked sharp global reactions, with widespread criticism of Trump and Vance’s posture. As the U.S. distances itself from its traditional role as a central negotiating power, a noticeable shift is underway. The U.K. and France have moved quickly to fill that void — a development that could reshape the geopolitical centre of gravity.

In response, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer called for a “coalition of the willing,” hosting a major summit at Lancaster House in London. Leaders from Canada, France, Germany, Italy, as well as the heads of the EU and NATO, gathered to reaffirm support for Ukraine. Starmer pledged £1.6 billion in arms, including 5,000 missiles, and also urged for a roadmap to bring Washington back to the negotiating table. Beyond material aid, the summit signalled a broader ambition — for the U.K. to position itself as the primary diplomatic channel in the absence of a steady U.S. approach.

That intention has been echoed in the days since. Even as conversations between Trump and Zelenskyy cautiously resume, the U.K. remains at the forefront of coalition-building. Starmer has held follow-up calls with leaders across Europe, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, and top NATO and EU officials. In the aftermath of America’s pivot, Britain has not only assumed a leadership role in the Ukrainian crisis but also signalled readiness to be a stabilising actor in broader conflicts ahead.

This moment may well be a test case for the U.K.’s renewed diplomatic identity — a chance to shape its post-Brexit role as an agile, engaged force in global affairs. With the EU increasingly echoing calls to “ReArm Europe,” as voiced by Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Britain’s proactive stance — though outside the EU — may mark it as a firm, indispensable actor in the security architecture of the continent.

While the U.K. has taken bold steps to position itself as the lead negotiator, France too has been assertively entering the diplomatic fray. Paris hosted high-level talks with senior U.S. officials on Thursday, signalling President Macron’s intent to stay closely engaged despite Washington’s wavering stance. As a core member of the European Union, France brings institutional leverage to the table — a factor that adds weight to any diplomatic pressure it may exert. Its parallel efforts, including quiet backchannel negotiations and coordinated EU-led initiatives, indicate that France is not simply reacting to the moment but actively seeking to shape it. In tandem with the U.K., a strong Franco-British partnership could be key to building sustained international pressure towards a ceasefire — or at the very least, reshaping the balance of influence in ongoing peace efforts.

Meanwhile, the U.K. already has its next move in motion. Starmer is set to host a high-level meeting involving senior U.S., European, and Ukrainian diplomats in London next week. A strategic attempt to convene key players on its home turf, the Starmer government is doubling down on its role as a principal mediator and signalling that it intends to keep diplomatic momentum alive, with or without direct U.S. leadership. The meeting is being closely watched as a litmus test for whether Europe, led by a proactive U.K.-France tandem, can steer the conflict toward de-escalation through persistent multilateral engagement.

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